Rebecca Yarros delivers a breathtaking romance in “In the Likely Event,” weaving a tale that spans a decade of near-misses, heartbreak, and unwavering love between two souls connected by a fateful plane crash. With the military precision found in her previous works like “The Last Letter” and “Fourth Wing,” Yarros crafts a story that balances raw emotion with the harsh realities of life, creating a romance that feels both destined and hard-earned.
The Enchanting Premise
When eighteen-year-old college freshman Isabeau “Izzy” Astor boards a flight from St. Louis, she’s plagued by her fear of flying. Nathaniel “Nate” Phelan, a nineteen-year-old farm boy heading to basic training, happens to be sitting in her assigned window seat. What begins as a chance encounter quickly evolves into an extraordinary connection as they share their fears and dreams in the minutes before takeoff.
Then the unthinkable happens: ninety seconds after takeoff, the plane crashes into the Missouri River, thrusting Izzy and Nate into a harrowing fight for survival. The crash binds them in ways neither could anticipate, setting off a decade-long journey of crossed paths, missed opportunities, and a love that refuses to die despite time, distance, and circumstance.
Masterful Storytelling Through Dual Timelines
Yarros employs a dual-timeline structure that enhances rather than complicates the storytelling. The narrative alternates between past and present, revealing how Izzy and Nate’s relationship evolves through brief, intense encounters over the years, culminating in their reunion in Afghanistan where Nate, now a Special Forces operator, is assigned to protect Izzy, a congressional aide.
The transitions between timelines are seamless, each past moment building toward the emotional stakes of their present circumstances. This structure creates a magnificent slow burn, allowing readers to experience both the history and immediacy of their connection simultaneously.
Character Depth That Resonates
What sets “In the Likely Event” apart is the remarkable depth of its protagonists:
- Izzy Astor: More than just a privileged politician’s daughter, Izzy’s journey from an anxious college freshman to a determined woman fighting for what she believes in feels authentic. Her struggles with her parents’ emotional absence, her career choices, and her unwavering love for Nate reveal a character with genuine complexity.
- Nate Phelan: Yarros excels at crafting military heroes with both strength and vulnerability. Nate’s transformation from a farm boy to a Special Forces operator carries the weight of his traumatic childhood, the loss of friends, and the psychological toll of combat. His commitment to compartmentalizing his experiences to protect Izzy feels both noble and frustrating—a realistic portrayal of someone who loves too deeply to fully let go.
The supporting characters, particularly Izzy’s sister Serena and Nate’s fellow soldier Torres, provide necessary perspective and emotional anchors throughout the narrative.
A Romance Built on More Than Chemistry
While the physical chemistry between Izzy and Nate sizzles off the page, their romance is rooted in something far deeper:
- Shared trauma: The plane crash creates an immediate bond that transcends ordinary connection
- Mutual understanding: Despite their different backgrounds, they see and accept each other wholly
- Unwavering support: Through career changes, family pressures, and personal growth, they champion each other’s dreams
- Sacrifice: Both characters repeatedly put the other’s needs ahead of their own
The result is a love story that feels earned rather than contrived. When Yarros writes, “Because as wrong as it might be, I loved him so much that I was willing to take whatever I could get when it came to Nate,” readers feel the profound resignation and hope in equal measure.
Military Romance With Authenticity
Yarros, whose own experience as a military spouse informs her writing, brings exceptional authenticity to the military aspects of the narrative. The portrayal of Special Forces operations, the psychological impact of combat, and the toll of repeated deployments never feels romanticized or glossed over.
Particularly striking is the climactic sequence set during the fall of Kabul in 2021. This section balances political complexity with deeply personal stakes, creating a vivid backdrop for Nate and Izzy’s reunification while honoring the gravity of actual historical events. Readers of military romance will appreciate the careful attention to detail without feeling bogged down by jargon.
Emotional Impact That Lingers
Few romance novels manage to evoke such a wide spectrum of emotions. The narrative moves effortlessly from:
- Heart-pounding action during the plane crash sequence
- Tender, soul-stirring moments during their brief reunions
- Devastating heartbreak during misunderstandings and separations
- Exhilarating hope when possibilities finally align
The emotional journey feels authentic rather than manipulative, making the eventual happy ending all the more satisfying.
Room for Improvement
While “In the Likely Event” shines in many aspects, a few elements could have been strengthened:
- Pacing in the middle section: The years between their Fiji trip and the Afghanistan reunion could have been condensed slightly to maintain momentum.
- Jeremy’s character development: Izzy’s fiancé feels somewhat one-dimensional, serving primarily as an obstacle rather than a fully realized character with his own motivations.
- Political context: While the military aspects feel lived-in and authentic, some of the political machinations that drive Izzy’s career choices lack the same level of nuance.
These minor issues don’t significantly detract from the overall impact of the novel, but they represent missed opportunities for an otherwise exceptional story.
Thematic Richness Beyond Romance
Beneath the love story, Yarros explores several compelling themes:
- Fate versus choice: The narrative constantly questions whether Izzy and Nate’s connection is destined or deliberately chosen
- The cost of duty: Both characters grapple with sacrificing personal happiness for professional obligation
- Trauma and healing: The process of confronting past wounds becomes essential to moving forward
- The meaning of home: Both characters eventually recognize that home isn’t a place but a person
These thematic elements elevate the novel beyond a simple romance, inviting readers to contemplate their own beliefs about destiny, sacrifice, and what constitutes a meaningful life.
Comparison to Other Works
Fans of Rebecca Yarros will recognize her signature blend of military authenticity and emotional depth found in her previous works like “The Last Letter” and “Great and Precious Things.” However, “In the Likely Event” feels more expansive in scope than her earlier novels, spanning a decade and multiple settings.
For readers new to Yarros, this novel shares DNA with Mia Sheridan’s “Archer’s Voice” in its exploration of trauma and healing, and with Devney Perry’s “Letters to Molly” in its examination of timing and second chances. Nicholas Sparks fans might also appreciate the fusion of fate and romance, though Yarros brings significantly more heat to her narrative.
Final Verdict
“In the Likely Event” is a triumphant addition to the contemporary romance genre, demonstrating Rebecca Yarros’s considerable talent for creating characters who feel real enough to embrace and a love story powerful enough to believe in. The perfect blend of heart-stopping action, soul-deep connection, and earned romance makes this a standout novel that lingers long after the final page.
While not without minor flaws, the novel’s strengths—authentic characters, riveting plot, emotional resonance, and thematic depth—far outweigh its weaknesses. For readers who believe in the power of connection, the importance of timing, and the possibility that some loves are simply meant to be, “In the Likely Event” is a must-read that delivers on its promise of an unforgettable love story.
